Thursday 5/11/2023

back to "2 ton tilly"

Intro

Wednesday

SPY trades stacked at the highs and close. Bearish. Keep watching “2 Ton Tilly”

QQQ not much today. Watch 325

Macro trend looks like selling the highs.

Realtime prints not much today. TLT 103.42 still relevant. TLT prints look like buys to me.

Close prints high volume TLT and all megacaps. Megacaps likely selling.

Extra technical analysis: The darkpool bro in me sees selling the highs. The chartist in me sees a bullish ES chart. The 200 day moving average is sloping up → bullish. ES has bounced off the daily Keltner bottom twice in a row → bullish. Be careful if you are planning to short the world. I wouldn’t do that here.

A bullish chart looks the most bullish right before it’s not. Same for bearish charts. That’s why I talk about levels. Levels will tell you if you’re right or wrong.

Thursday

Another SPY nothing day sitting on “2 Ton Tilly”

SPY PRINTS

More trades at 412. Very important level (still).

MACRO TREND

Somewhat neutral.

QQQ PRINTS

Bunch of volume at ~326, $1.4B borderline. That’s a lot. I’m going to draw that one on the QQQ chart. Watch new level tomorrow.